Forecasting COVID-19 Cases With Government Intervention Comparisons: Lockdown, Trackdown, and Herd Immunity

According to the model, whether or not the number of infected individuals is increasing or decreasing at any time t depends on the reproductive ratio (R0 or R-nought) that signifies the average number of infectious who pass the virus to others. [...]by comparing R0s from various countries, we have assessed the effectiveness of government interventions. [...]the classical SIR model can be described by a series of ordinary differential equations: [...]the effective reproductive (referred to as R_0) rate is considered a threshold determining whether an infectious disease will die out quickly or lead to an epidemic.